In a best-of-seven postseason series in Major League Baseball, the most important game is Game 3.
After splitting the first two games, the team that wins Game 3 wins the series 68 out of 99 times, or 68.7% of the time. To put this in perspective, in a 2-3-2 postseason series, the team that wins Games 1 and 2 at home goes on to win the series 48 out of 87 times, or 55.2% of the time.
In other words, the Texas Rangers have a 55.2% chance of winning the World Series. Notably, Texas comes into the Arizona diamond with a 64.2% (122 of 190) chance of winning Game 1 in a best-of-seven series.
Additionally, Texas has won all of its road games this postseason. Game 3 will be played at Arizona’s home Chase Field on May 31 at 9:03 a.m. ET.
Texas has won all eight of its road games, including Games 1 and 2 of the Wild Card against the Tampa Bay Rays, Games 1 and 2 of the Division Series against the Baltimore Orioles, and Games 1, 2, 6, and 7 of the ALCS against the Houston Astros. The eight-game winning streak on the road in the postseason ties the record set by the New York Yankees in 1996 when they won the World Series. If Texas wins Game 3, it will set a new postseason record for longest road winning streak.
Fangraphs has Texas with a 52 percent chance of winning and Arizona with a 48 percent chance of winning as of Oct. 30. All indicators are pointing in Texas’ favor. As Texas rookie outfielder Evan Carter said after the Game 2 loss, “History is definitely in our favor, having won both games on the road. We’re going to come out with all the confidence in the world and be ready to go.”
In addition, Texas announced that it will start its all-time ace, Max Scherzer, 39, in Game 3. Scherzer tore the supraspinatus muscle in his right shoulder on Sept. 13 against the Toronto Blue Jays and missed the rest of the season. He was initially expected to miss the postseason, but he recovered quickly and pitched two games in the ALCS. The pitching results weren’t great. In Game 3, he gave up five runs on five hits and one walk with four strikeouts in four innings, and in Game 7, he gave up two runs on four hits and two walks with two strikeouts in 2⅔ innings.
However, he expressed confidence ahead of the World Series, saying he has “more strength,” and manager Bruce Bochy said, “We need to make sure he can go as many innings as he normally does. If not 100 pitches or more, close to that.”토스카지노
It’s also interesting to note that Scherzer started his professional career in Arizona. He was selected in the first round of the 2006 draft by Arizona and made his major league debut in 2008. He went 9-15 with a 3.86 ERA in 46 games over two seasons until he was traded to the Detroit Tigers in December 2009.
Starting for Arizona against Scherzer will be rookie Brandon Part, 25. Part made his major league debut in May of this year and went 3-9 with a 5.72 ERA in 96 innings pitched in 19 regular-season games. However, in what seems like an unbelievable turn of events, Part has been more than up to the task this fall, pitching 16⅔ innings in four games with a 2.70 ERA. He was particularly impressive in Game 3 of the NLCS against the Philadelphia Phillies, pitching 5⅔ innings of two-hit ball with nine strikeouts in a 2-1 victory. After dropping Games 1 and 2, Arizona was able to take Game 3 and start a comeback thanks to Part’s stellar performance.
Arizona head coach Torey Lovullo said he couldn’t rely on Part to go the distance in Game 3: “He’s a plus-minus four through 18 batters. That’s what we did in the second half of the season. We’re going to go that way again.” “He’s shown a lot and we’ve seen the ability to go a little bit longer. We’ll see how he pitches and decide (the innings).”
Interestingly, Scherzer and Parte hold the major league records for highest and lowest salaries this season. Scherzer is tied with Houston’s Justin Verlander for the highest salary at $43.3 million, while Part is tied for the lowest at $720,000. That’s a difference of more than 60 times.